Weekly Market Update

2018年10月12日

本周全球股市大幅震荡。尽管美国三大股指在周五终于迎来全线反弹,标普500指数本周依然累计下跌4.1%, 道琼斯指数下跌4.2%, 纳斯达克下跌3.7%。其中,代表小盘股指数的罗素2000跌5.2%,创2016年1月以来最大的单周跌幅。

利率上涨过快是本周美股下跌的主要原因
美国国债收益率与美国股市的表现息息相关。如同我们在一月份所见的大盘回调一样,本周美股的大幅下挫主要是由于美国国债收益率的大幅攀升所致。许多投资者担心,利率上涨过快会给公司还债能力带来负面影响,从而给公司盈利带来压力。然而,利率的上涨并不意味着股市的必然下跌。在过去的几个月内,当十年期国债收益率回归到一个稳定的区间内时,美股依然保持着一个强劲的势头。因此,若想要股市维持在一个稳定向上的通道,国债收益率的稳定必不可少。

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通货膨胀率增长过快是另一个潜在风险

美国失业率屡创新低,许多公司不得不通过提高工资来吸引人才,例如亚马逊公司宣布从11月1日起将美国员工的最低时薪上调至15美元,远超联邦政府法律规定的7美金25美分。薪资的上涨,催化了通货膨胀率的过快增长,从而进一步给公司盈利带来压力。其次,许多政治经济学家对中美贸易冲突的发展持悲观态度。一旦贸易冲突升级,美国政府将会对来自中国价值2670亿美金的进口商品提高关税,进一步刺激通货膨胀率的增长。最重要的是,这将使得原本依赖中国廉价原材料及商品的美国本土企业不得不面对来自成本提高的压力。

股市的回调是必要且健康的
从历史上看,5%的大盘调整是合理且常见的。从1928年至今,平均美股每71个交易日就会经历5%的回调。从基本面来看,美国的经济与股市依然是健康的。许多经济学家认为,得益于减税和财政政策的刺激,美国经济仍在稳健的发展扩张中,且有2到3年的发展空间。从年初至今,平均公司每股收益(EPS)始终维持在21-25%的成长率。同时,此次大盘回调将股票的估值回归到了合理区间。Forward P/E从先前的17x 下调至过去三年的平均值16x,有效的避免了美股的泡沫化以及过高的估值。

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除此之外,本次大盘回调的空间也十分有限。市场普遍认为美国十年期债券收益率将在第四季度回归到3.1% 到 3.15% 区间,再次突破3.2%将是小概率事件。同时,最新的经济数据表明,核心通货膨胀率增长率为2.2%,低于预估的2.3%。


Market Review

What happened to the market?

U.S. stocks rose modestly in the mid of the trading session on Tuesday, but closed nearly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately 30 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added nearly 30 points or 0.4%. A potential full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China once again grabs investors’ attention with future uncertainties, especially after the Chinese President Xi recently remarked that China would “punch back” against trade restrictions. Meanwhile, Chinese Yuan or RMB has been under lots of pressure in recent weeks. Many believe devaluation could be a tactic for Beijing to stimulate its export to counteract the effect of potential tariffs. But to prevent capital flight will be a major challenge in the foreseeable future.

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Where is oil price heading?

An interesting day today for the crude market. According to CNBC, U.S. crude surges 3.6% settling at $70.53 after State Department says that oil buyers must cut all Iranian crude imports by November. Crude price has been on an uptrend since July 2017, today’s news most likely will push the price to a new high.

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Market Review

What happened to the market?

Very volatile day today in the markets. Major U.S. indexes tumbled on Monday as investors raised concerns with uncertainties of the future trade policies between the world’s two largest economies. Nasdaq Composite, in particular, fell nearly 3% during the trading session after reports of possible plans from the White House to impose investment restrictions on China, though Secretary Mnuchin later clarified the policy isn’t targeting China specifically but would target “all countries that are trying to steal our technology” according to WSJ. The technology sector had been resilient over the past several months even under the pressure of rising possibilities of a trade war between the U.S. and China. Could today’s selloff be the beginning of future many selloffs?

 

Where is U.S. dollar heading?

There is still a case for a even stronger U.S. dollar near term:

  • The euro still has problems, particularly in Italy

  • BoJ is still pursuing very easy policy

  • Overseas money coming back from tax repatriation

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Side Notes:

China A Share has entered a bear market. Will investors see a bounce back any time soon or will there be more pain down the road? Will Beijing strike back with stricter policies against the U.S.? We are indeed living in an interesting era with many questions unanswered.

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In the West you have the notion that if somebody hits you on the left cheek, you turn the other cheek,” the Chinese leader said, according to the people. “In our culture we punch back.
— President Xi according to WSJ